Our Returns

2026 YTD Return — Close of Jul 10, 2026
ThriftTrading
+14.25%
Buy & Hold
+8.88%
G Fund
+2.30%

Investors have had plenty to navigate in 2026. Renewed conflict in the Middle East, a spike in oil prices, and a Federal Reserve still balancing inflation against a moderating economy have kept sentiment defensive, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index spending much of the year in Fear territory even as equities climbed to new highs. Our mechanical, rules-based system has cut through that noise, keeping us positioned for the advance and producing a +14.25% year-to-date return, well ahead of buy-and-hold's +8.88% and the G Fund's +2.30%.

Average Annual Return — Since 2005
ThriftTrading
+10.16%
Buy & Hold
+7.63%
G Fund
+2.93%

Our main goal is to maximize TSP savings during bull market cycles and protect capital during potentially unstable market periods. Using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis validated by a mechanical impulse system, ThriftTrading has averaged +10.16% per year since 2005, compared to +7.63% for buy-and-hold and +2.93% for the G Fund, outperforming buy-and-hold by +2.53% annually and beating it outright in 15 of 21 years. Calculating returns.

71.4%
Win Rate vs. Buy & Hold
15 of 21 years, 2005–2025
-13.28%
ThriftTrading Max Drawdown
Buy & Hold: -21.71%
0.73
Sharpe Ratio (ThriftTrading)
Buy & Hold: 0.43
1.58
Sortino Ratio (ThriftTrading)
Buy & Hold: 0.68

Sharpe and Sortino ratios calculated using the G Fund as the risk-free rate, 2005–2025. The Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside volatility only.

Annual Returns and Running Averages

Year-by-Year Data

Annual return left of divider; running average right. All values are percentages.
Year G FundG Buy & HoldBH ThriftTradingTT
20054.40%4.40%7.79%7.79%21.79%21.79%
20064.93%4.67%13.35%10.57%15.25%18.52%
20074.87%4.73%6.88%9.34%9.32%15.45%
20083.75%4.49%-21.71%1.58%-7.56%9.70%
20092.97%4.18%20.11%5.28%23.30%12.42%
20102.81%3.95%12.32%6.46%14.54%12.77%
20112.45%3.74%-0.55%5.46%5.07%11.67%
20121.47%3.46%11.80%6.25%-4.60%9.64%
20131.89%3.28%18.63%7.62%12.54%9.96%
20142.31%3.18%5.07%7.37%22.73%11.24%
20152.04%3.08%0.20%6.72%13.07%11.40%
20161.82%2.98%7.04%6.74%4.71%10.85%
20172.33%2.93%14.32%7.33%16.51%11.28%
20182.91%2.92%-4.81%6.46%-0.17%10.46%
20192.24%2.88%18.56%7.27%21.42%11.19%
20200.97%2.76%13.36%7.65%12.69%11.29%
20211.38%2.68%10.50%7.82%7.23%11.05%
20222.98%2.70%-13.64%6.62%-13.28%9.70%
20234.22%2.78%15.95%7.11%16.07%10.03%
20244.40%2.86%10.38%7.28%12.40%10.15%
20254.44%2.93%14.67%7.63%10.38%10.16%
Average 2.93% 7.63% 10.16%
Best Year 4.93%'06 20.11%'09 23.30%'09
Worst Year 0.97%'20 -21.71%'08 -13.28%'22
Total Return +83.2% +319.9% +599.8%

The buy-and-hold benchmark reflects an equal 20% allocation across all five TSP funds, rebalanced back to equal weight at the start of each calendar year with no market timing in between. The G Fund is the Government Securities Investment Fund, which provides guaranteed principal and a fixed interest rate set monthly by the U.S. Treasury.

Growth of $100,000

Chart runs through 2026 YTD and includes a partial year not yet reflected in the year-by-year table averages.

Independently Verified
TimerTrac.com

Our signals are independently tracked and verified by TimerTrac.com, an independent third-party verifier of timing performance.