Our Returns

After nearly three months of going nowhere, the S&P 500 broke out above its ascending triangle in early August and closed at new highs, with the Relative Strength Index clearing the top of its downtrending channel and the Stochastics turning up from oversold. Sentiment turned just as sharply, as the CNN Fear & Greed Index jumped from 37 to 60 and crossed out of Fear into Greed, while the VIX slid to the mid teens. Earnings have generally exceeded expectations and inflation has moderated, even as tariffs, government debt, and Federal Reserve policy warrant continued attention. Dow Theory confirmation remains intact, though a move into Greed and midterm-year seasonality both argue for care as August progresses. Our mechanical, rules-based system stayed invested through the consolidation and captured the breakout, producing a +16.04% year-to-date return, well ahead of buy-and-hold's +9.89% and the G Fund's +2.64%.

Our main goal is to maximize TSP savings during bull market cycles and protect capital during potentially unstable market periods. Using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis validated by a mechanical impulse system, ThriftTrading has averaged +10.16% per year since 2005, compared to +7.63% for buy-and-hold and +2.93% for the G Fund, outperforming buy-and-hold by +2.53% annually and beating it outright in 15 of 21 years. Calculating returns.

Sharpe and Sortino ratios calculated using the G Fund as the risk-free rate, 2005-2025. The Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside volatility only.